PROGRAM Statistical Modelling of Football Data
The course is aimed at giving the background of modern statistical football modelling, starting from the seminal works focused on the double Poisson distributions for the number of the goals until the most recent research lines oriented towards the use of additional covariates, tracking data and machine learning methods.
The course covers many statistical modelling strategies and requires a satisfactory knowledge of R.
The instructors will provide both theoretical material and R code to reproduce some practical examples. Although the flavor of the course is mainly Bayesian, ‘classical’ statisticians can anyway enjoy the course’s contents in a perfect way.
Registration fee for the short course: May 31, 202 – 120 euro
Date & Duration
The course will last 6 hours on the 17th of July.
R, JAGS & Stan (possibly).
Registration fee for the short course: May 31, 2022 - 120 euro
LISTEN TO THE Lecturers
University of Athens
Professor at the Department of Statistics of Athens University of Economics and Business from 22/12/2015.
Graduate of the Department of Statistics and Insurance Science (1994). He received his M.Sc. in Statistics with Application in Medicine (with distinction) from the University of Southampton (1995) and his Ph.D. from the Department of Statistics at Athens University of Economics and Business (1999). He completed his military service from May 1999 until November of 2000. He worked as temporary teaching faculty member at the Department Statistics and Actuarial Science of the University of the Aegean (2000-2001). In 2001 he earned (jointly with another candidate) the Lefkopouleion Prize for the best thesis in Statistics in Greece for the period 1999-2000 awarded by the Greek Statistical Institute. He worked a Lecturer of Quantitative Methods at the Department of Business Administration of the University of the Aegean for the period 2001-2004, and as an Assistant Professor at the Department of Statistics of the Athens University of Economics and Business from 2004 until 2011. Over the last years, he has been teaching in several postgraduate courses of the Athens University of Economics and Business (Statistics, Business Analytics, and Data Science), of the University of Athens (Biostatistics, and Estimation and Management of Professional, Environmental and Medical Risk) and of the University of the Aegean (Business Administration). He has given a number of lectures in postgraduate courses at the University of Pavia and at the Universita Catollica del Sacro Cuore (Milan, Italy) and at the Ph.D. program of Statistics at the University of Biccoca-Milan. He has served as a general secretaty of the Greek Statistical Institute for 2006 - 2007. He is creator and organizer of the grstats list (http://grstats.forumotion.net/). In 2010, his book entitled "Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS", published by Wiley and Sons, received honorary mention in the subject of mathematics in the PROSE (Professional and Scholarly Excellence) Awards given by the Association of American Publishers - AAP.
University of Trieste
Phd, Assistant professor (rtd-a) at the Department of Business, Economics, Mathematics and Statistics 'Bruno de Finetti' of the University of Trieste. I teach the courses Statistical Methods for Data Science and Bayesian Statistics for the Data Science and Scientific Computing Master degree provided by the Department of Mathematics and Earth Sciences.
PROGRAM Tentative Contents
- Current topics in Football Analytics
- Double Poisson Models, Prediction, and League re-generation
- Using covariates and additional info
- Application to English Premier League data
- Bayesian Models for Prediction Using the footbayes R package
Model checking via PP checks
- Dynamic models, attacking/defence abilities
- Prediction probabilities and model comparisons
- Prediction with Advanced Models
- Introduction to in-play analytics
- Bradley-Terry and ordered probit models
- Overdispersion and correlation in Poisson-based models
- Draw inflation
- Copula models
- Tracking data
NOTE: All participants should have R installed in their computers. Some implementations will be possibly in OpenBUGS, Jags or STAN and footbayes package in R (Discover more here)